Spatial Modeling of Sustainable Future Urban Expansion Using Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing – Zintan City as a Case Study –

Abstract

Urban expansion in the city of Zintan has been accelerating rapidly, creating a need for the application of modern scientific approaches to predict future urban growth patterns in support of sustainable urban development. The research problem lies in the absence of a spatial model capable of identifying the most suitable areas for future urban expansion within the city. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a spatial model for evaluating land suitability for urban expansion using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) techniques. The study employed the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to derive the relative weights of the criteria influencing urban expansion. Satellite imagery, after appropriate preprocessing, was used to generate and analyze the spatial layers within the GIS environment. The results revealed that approximately 90% of the study area falls within the highly suitable and most suitable land suitability classes for urban expansion, indicating the availability of extensive land resources capable of accommodating future urban growth under sound planning principles. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that directing urban expansion toward these suitable areas can reduce unplanned urban sprawl, optimize infrastructure development costs, and preserve the natural hydrological network, thereby contributing to sustainable urban development in the city of Zintan.