Urban Transformations in Tobruk City (2005–2025): A Geographical Study and Urban Foresight to 2035

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the urban transformations in Tobruk City during the period 2005 - 2025, with an outlook towards its urban future by 2035. The research addresses the main problem of unplanned urban expansion, which has resulted in increasing pressures on infrastructure and public services, along with environmental, social, and economic consequences. The study adopts a descriptive-analytical approach supported by spatial analysis tools using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Satellite imagery, spatial maps, and official statistical data were analyzed to identify urban expansion patterns. The results revealed three main expansion forms: linear growth along major roads, circular growth around the old center, and scattered growth in peripheral areas. Expansion trends were more evident towards the east (port area) and west (new residential neighborhoods), while southern expansion was limited due to topographical constraints. The study proposes three possible scenarios for Tobruk’s future by 2035: organized expansion under a comprehensive master plan, continued unplanned growth with partial regulation, or worsening informal settlements with severe service pressures. The research recommends preparing a comprehensive urban plan, strengthening land-use legislation, and upgrading infrastructure to match population growth.