The Demographic Transition in Libya A Sociological Study of the Intersection of Displacement and Migrant Issues with the Phenomenon of Skilled Migration in the South (2021–2026)

Abstract

This study examines the phenomenon of the 'reversed demographic paradox' in Southern Libya (Fezzan and the Southeastern region), resulting from the intersection of three structural trends: internal displacement, trans-border migration, and brain drain. The paper analyzes the 'dual replacement dynamic' characterizing the region. This dynamic involves a continuous outflow of qualified local elites and professionals towards northern urban centers due to developmental and security push factors. Concurrently, the region has transformed into a hub for unregulated settlement and influxes of largely unskilled migrants fleeing complex crises in neighboring countries (Sudan, Niger, and Chad). Utilizing an analytical approach, the study deconstructs the socio-demographic and anthropological dimensions of this phenomenon and its role in reshaping the region's social fabric. The study concludes that this demographic replacement threatens the structural stability and societal security of Southern Libya, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive development strategies to retain local talents and regulate border flows.