The Crisis of Legitimacy and Institutions in Libya – A Political Science Approach to the Dialectic of Elite Consensus and Regional and Local Competition (2011-2026)

Abstract

This paper addresses the problematic of the stalled construction of legitimacy and the unification of institutions in Libya since 2011. It highlights the structural and dialectical tension between the top-down agreements and deals concluded by political elites in conference halls, and the competition and regional grievances simmering on the ground. The study draws on an analytical approach that combines Elite Theory with the literature on Consociationalism and elite pact-making, employing a case-study methodology to deconstruct the intertwined trajectories of transitional decision-making from the Skhirat Agreement through to the arrangements of 2026. The findings reveal a feedback loop between the elites' inability to forge genuine national consensus attentive to geographic specificities, and the growing regional and sub-regional tendencies that reproduce institutional division and prevent the accumulation of unified sovereign legitimacy. The paper concludes that the key to exiting the impasse lies in shifting from the logic of top-down power-sharing to a sustainable bottom-up consensus that recognizes the institutional representation of all Libyan components as the foundation for rebuilding the state.