Iranian Foreign Policy Toward the Arab Gulf States: Constants and Variables (2003–2015).

Abstract

This research focuses on analyzing the mechanisms and formulation of Iranian foreign policy, as well as Iran's behavior toward the Arab Gulf states, during a highly complex and dynamic period (2003–2015). This period gains exceptional significance because it began with structural transformations following the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, which reshaped the regional balance of power, and concluded with the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, which expanded Iran's regional roles. The study revolves around a core question: How did the interaction between Iranian constants and determinants shape the shifting features of Iran's behavior toward its Gulf neighborhood?, The researcher proceeded from a hypothesis asserting the existence of a fixed structural characteristic in Iran's political doctrine; namely, its tireless pursuit of a leadership role to attain regional hegemony, relying on its nuclear program as a leverage card whose effects fluctuate between escalation and appeasement. The research proposed three possible future paths for Iranian-Gulf relations: stagnation, consensus, or confrontation.